Gold & silver price prediction today: Where are gold, silver rates headed on July 15, 2025 and in the near-term? Here's what investors should know

Gold price prediction: In the very short-term, spot gold is expected to move majorly on tariff news flow. (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Even as gold prices climb, it is silver prices which are in focus after hitting record highs. US President Donald Trump’s tariff war, the fresh threat of 100% tariff on Russia may shape the market trends for gold rate. Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views on gold and silver price outlook:

Gold Performance:

Gold – In the week ending July 11, the yellow metal extended its winning weekly streak to the second straight week on safe haven demand as the US President Trump amped up the trade wars by ratcheting up tariff rates on key economies like Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Canada.
The yellow metal closed with a weekly gain of 0.53% at $3,355.59.
On July 14, spot gold traded between $3,341 and $3,375 as the metal swung with the ebb and flow of tariff news.
Gold retreated as the US President said that he is open to trade negotiations.
At the time of writing this article, spot gold was changing hands at $3,349, down 0.20% for the day, whereas the MCX August gold contract at Rs 97,718 was down 0.10%.
Silver – Silver surged 3.87% in the week ending July 11 on strong ETF inflows and a tight market.
On July 14, spot silver spiked to $39.13, a fresh 14-year high, before backing off along with gold.
At the time of writing this article, the metal was trading at $38.42, up 0.1% for the day. The MCX September Silver contract at Rs 113,060 was up 0.05% for the day.

Tariff developments:

In the weekend, the President imposed 30% tariffs on both the European Union (EU) and Mexico, effective August 1.
Trump warned the EU that he would increase tariff rates should the Bloc retaliate against his measures.
He called Mexico’s curbs to secure US borders insufficient.
For now, the EU has suspended retaliatory measures against the US until August 1 as the Bloc strives to achieve a solution through diplomatic efforts, though it has one active list targeting €21 billion in US exports and a second one targeting €72 billion more if needed
Trump said that South Korea and the EU are in talk with the US on trades.
Trump threatened Russia with 100% tariffs if Putin doesn’t end the Ukraine war within 50 days. Crude oil tumbled on this development.
The President saying that he is open to trade talks weighed on the precious metals complex.

US Dollar Index and yields:

Despite lower oil prices, 10-year US yields at 4.43% were up 0.54% for the day. The yields were up around 1.40% last week.
2-Year US yields rose by nearly 1.5 bps to 3.90% following a rise of around 1 bps last week.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was up around 0.25% as it was noted at 98.10; the Index extended its rally to the sixth straight day.
The Index has recovered around 1.80% from its cycle-low of 96.37, lowest since February 2022, which was reached on July 1. However, it is still down over 9% this year.

Data roundup:

China’s trade data (June) were released on July 14. Trade balance at $114.77 billion topped the estimate of $112.01 billion as both imports (1.1% Vs the forecast of 0.2%) and exports (5.80% Vs the forecast of 5%) beat the forecasts.

ETF and COMEX inventory:

Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 91.017MOz, down slightly in the last two weeks; however, holdings continue to hover around 2-year high and are up 9.84% YTD.
As of July 11, COMEX Gold inventory stood at 36.74 MOz, down 18.48% from the record level of 45.07MOz noted on April 4. Inventories dwindle as investors opt for physical delivery.
As of July 11, total known global silver ETF holdings stood at 774.430MOz, as ETFs recorded net inflows for the ninth straight week. Global ETF holdings are up over 58Moz (1812 tons) this year and have risen 8.14% YTD.
COMEX silver inventory at 494.19 MOz is down around 2% from the all-time high level of 505 MOz noted on May 12.

Trump once again asks Fed’s Powell to step down:

Trump and his allies have turned up heat on the Fed Chair Powell over the issue of Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation, which has a cost estimate of $2.50 billion, and is being considered as an extravagant expense. Trump, calling Powell bad for the economy, has once again repeated that Powell should step down.

Upcoming data:

July 15 is a data-packed day as China’s 2Q GDP, retail sales (June), industrial production (June) home prices (June) and property data (June) will be released.
Traders will look forward to US CPI data (June), too, as they try to assess the probability and quantum of rate cuts in the coming months, though June CPI data are expected to be hotter-than-May data.
Other crucial US data to be released this week include PPI (June), retail sales advance (June), housing starts (June), University of Michigan sentiment and both short-term and long-term inflation expectations along with import and export price indices (June).

Gold Price Outlook:

In the very short-term, spot gold is expected to move majorly on tariff news flow.
President Trump repeatedly calling Powell to step down undermines the independence of the Fed, which is also supportive for the metal.
The US may not be able to reach trade deals with major economies anytime soon, though risk assets holding well in the face of tariff threats shows that investors hope that trade wars are likely to be contained.
Today’s US CPI data may strengthen the US Dollar further, though, overall, the upside is limited.
We think that Trump is going to up the ante in trade wars as risk assets remain elevated.
It is advisable to buy gold with a stoploss below $3290 (Rs 95,900). The metal is likely to rise on safe haven demand due to tariff concerns and the Fed’s independence issue. Resistance is seen at $3375 (Rs 98,500)/$3405 (Rs 99,400).

Silver Price Outlook:

Silver is expected to get support on the concerns that Trump may impose tariffs on silver imports from Mexico. It is to be noted that Mexico accounted for 44% of US silver imports.
In 2024, the US imported nearly 4,200 tons of silver as the nation is the largest importer of silver.
Silver is also supported by supply concerns emanating from LBMA as elevated silver ETF holdings have reduced the availability of the metal. The annualized cost to borrow the metal for one month has surged to over 6%.
Silver is likely to trade with a positive bias unless the risk appetite gets soured due to intensification of trade wars.
Buying the dips with a stop-loss below $37.50 (Rs 110,000) for a target of $40 (Rs 117,000) is the preferred strategy in the very short-term. The grey metal is expected to rise to $42 (Rs 123,000) in the coming weeks.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)